Understanding Conditional Probability with Venn Diagrams

So, I haven’t seen many venn diagrams which show a difference between conditional and non conditional probabilities. Also, I have seen very few venn diagrams which use straight or angled lines to divide the sets, mostly they are circles, but I’ve seen straight or angled lines used to demonstrate the concept of universal sets (see the diagram at the bottom of the post). So, I tried to make two venn diagrams showing the difference between conditional and non conditional probabilities, see the diagram above…and it seemed to make the most sense to use straight or angled lines since the sets were mutually exclusive…can someone tell me if it is correct?

Example A
Probability some is a girl 1/3, probability someone is a boy 2/3
Probability someone drives 2/5, probability someone doesn’t drive 3/5

In Example A, whether a person drives is
independent from gender, because in either
case the probability that a person (boy or girl)
drives is 3/5, and that they don’t drive is 2/5. Is that right?

Example B
Probability drive P(D): 11/15
Probability don’t drive P(DD): 4/15
Probability don’t drive qiven qirl P(DD|G): 2/5
Probabilty drive qiven qirl P(D|G): 3/5
Probability drive qiven boy P(D|B): 4/5
Probability don’t drive qiven boy P(DD|B): 1/5
Probability qirl who doesn’t drive P(G and DD): 2/15
Probability qirl who drives P(G and D): 3/15
Probability boy who drives P(B and D): 8/15
Probability boy who doesn’t drive P(B and DD): 2/15

In Example B, whether a person drives is
not independent from gender, because the probabilities
that they drive are different, conditional
depending on whether they are a girl or boy,(e.g.,
probability drive if girl=3/5, and probability girl who drives P(D|G)=3/15, whereas probability
drive if boy=4/5, and probability boy who drives is 8/15. Is this right?

Here’s another A venn diagram with angled lines, not circles, illustrating the concept of universal sets, thrown in just to illustrate that all venn diagrams do not have to be drawn with circles.


Computer Recording with Rat and Metal Zone Pedals, Guitar: No Amp Simulator Needed

So I have a Rat pedal and a Metal Zone pedal for guitar. When I have recorded into my laptop computer in the past, neither pedal alone sounded too good. Especially the Metal Zone–it sounds too tinny and not warm going right into my M-Audio Transit USB audio interface. However, yesterday I tried something new. I plugged my Metal Zone pedal into my Rat pedal, then into the M-Audio Transit USB. Oddly enough, even with the Rat pedal turned off, my guitar through the Metal Zone pedal sounded way better, with more bass, fuller, and warmer. Does anyone know why on earth this would happen? My guitar sounds way better through the Metal Zone going through the Rat pedal than just going through the Metal Zone, even when the Rat is turned off, why is this??? I had been thinking about getting amp and room ambiance simulating programs to make my guitar sound more natural and warm, but maybe I don’t need to if putting the signal through a turned-off Rat pedal does the trick for me! I think the Rat was powered by an AC plug, not a battery, don’t know if that would make any difference–but maybe it wasn’t even plugged in. I’ll test this later…

Getting M-Audio Transit USB adapters to work with Windows Vista

So I have an M-Audio Transit USB Audio Interface as an alternative to getting a better sound card, and it worked fine and easily with Windows XP. However, with Vista, I would download the Vista drivers, and using Windows Media Player it would play through the Transit USB fine the first time for MP3s or .wav files. But then each other time I would use Windows Media Player and after I restarted the computer I would get the message “Windows Media Player encountered a problem while playing the file. For additional assistance, click Web Help.” ITunes wouldn’t work either.

I looked on the web, and I found something from M-Audio tech support saying “Make sure the Transit is selected as the default playback device in the Windows Sound Preferences.” But this doens’t seem to work for me. By default the Windows Sound Preferences “Default Format” for the Transit USB was set to “2 channel, 24-bit, 48000 HZ.” However, Windows Media Player and ITunes need the Sound setting to be set to 16-bit, not 24-bit! So the default settings seems to be causing the problem.

To try to fix this, I clicked on the Windows/Start button in the lower-right hand of the screen; clicked on “Control Panel,” then clicked on the “Sound” icon, then clicked on “S/PDIF Transit USB,” made sure it has a green check mark, if it didn’t clicked on it and clicked on the “Set Default” button; right-clicked on “S/PDIF Transit USB” and clicked on “Properties”; clicked on the “Advanced” tab; selected the “2 channel, 16-bit, 48000 HZ” option in the “Default Format” pull-down menu and clicked on the “Apply” button if it wasn’t already the default. However, the next time I open Windows Media Player or restart my computer or disconnect and reconnect my Transit USB, the default is back to 24-bits, not 16-bit!!! Does anyone know of a way to fix this??? Maybe M-Audio can make a new driver where the 16-bit option is selected by default?

It turns out someone else had the same exact problem posted in the M-Audio forums, doesn’t look like this has been resolved. Come on M-Audio, you’ve got to fix this problem! “If I go to the Advanced tab it comes up with the 24-bit tone by default. When I press the “test” button, I get a message saying “could not play test tone.”
However – if I manually select the 16-bit tone and press test, it plays! Furthermore, the 24-bit tone will also now play, and I can play music in Winamp.When I reboot and disconnect and reconnect the transit, it is dead again. If I go back to control panel and play the 16-bit tone, it comes back to life. I have to do this every time.”

Robert Fripp and David Bowie: Blackout, Heroes

David Bowie–Blackout

Must have been a great time for music fans in the 70s and 80s when you could depend on Robert Fripp to show up playing guitar on not only King Crimson but Brian Eno and David Bowie albums. I think he should do the same now, hiring himself out to play those 70s Robert Fripp solos (that Slash sometimes kind of mimicked on Appetite) for bands like Daft Punk etc. And yes, Robert Fripp, you should start soloing like this again, and playing on other people’s pop records.

My Bloody Valentine’s “Only Shallow” is Based on The Velvet Underground’s “The Ocean”; “Isn’t Anything” versus “Loveless”

For discerning listeners, it’s readily apparent that My Bloody Valentine’s “Only Shallow” is based on Velvet Underground’s “The Ocean”…

Velvet Underground’s “The Ocean”

My Bloody Valentine’s “Only Shallow”

Okay, so what about isn’t anything versus Loveless? I’m an “Isn’t Anything” man myself–there are a lot of “filler” sounding songs to me on Loveless, with only a few standouts (Only Shallow, Soon, etc). Loveless sounds a bit too mishmashy and dated to me–too many synths, drum machine-like sounds, and it’s too Manchestery, like My Bloody Valentine decided it wanted to be kind of rave-y in a kind of dated way. I can see how some people like Loveless better, but for me, songs like Cupid Come, (When You Wake) You’re Still, Sueisfine, Feed Me With Your Kiss, Soft as Snow (But Warm Inside) etc are classic MBV…

Caprica–good so far!

So there’s the new Battlestar Galactica prequel on the Syfy Channel (and you can watch it on Hulu too). Two episode’s in, I think it’s quite good! The first 10 minutes of the pilot are kind of sketchy, inside of that weird club, I thought “Oh no,” it was cheesy like the rave scenes in the Matrix. But luckily that cheesiness was an aberration, and the rest of the show has been very interesting! It does a good job of exploring a lot of the ideas from Battlestar Galactica in a totally new context–it’s not am outerspace spaceship spacewar show ala Star Wars and BSG, it’s a planetary scifi drama–in fact it’s sort of like Blade Runner meets Mad Men meets the Sopranos, if that makes any sense. Hope it keeps going strong…

Crazy Thunder Road and Burst City: Japanese Underground Films of the 1980s

Okay, so I think Akira was heavily influenced by this 1980 Sogo Ishii film Crazy Thunder Road, which looks awesome:

Crazy Thunder Road trailer

Burst City looks decent, but frankly nowhere near as good as Crazy Thunder Road

Song from the Crazy Thunder Road trailer:
Panta & Hal: Louise

Another song from the trailer:
“DenkouSekka ni Gin no Kutsu” by Shigeru Izumiya